The Next Great Thing to Kill Us All

We are both repulsed and fascinated by survivalists.  In Texas, we usually just call them "neighbor" but we do occasionally have to stop and shake our heads at some of the things they come up with.  We suspect the ascendancy of the survivalist meme has something to do with the geography, the lack of funding for public education, and the popularity of bad beer.  And let's face it, no news story can end well if it includes the phrase "just outside of Waco."

Those who follow Myrtle's musings are aware that we are fully willing to write about issues which lend themselves to apocalyptic thinking.  Things like oil spills, mass extinction, poisonous public water supplies, global warming, regressive educational policy, and so on.  On occasion this leads some persons to misconstrue our perspective; we are often asked, in response to the news that we are seeking to be self-sufficient, whether this is in preparation for "End Times".

We wish to unequivocally, once and for all time, put this to rest:  we are not delusional paranoiacs prone to magical thinking.  John of Patmos is credited with authoring the Book of Revelations; we believe co-credit should be given to an unknown ergot alkaloid.  And Nostradamus is a great name for a cat, but as a rule and measure for how to live one's life, we suggest looking forward, not backwards.  We raise chickens, grow our own herbs and vegetables, and are digging a fish pond not because we are trying to survive the final days of humanity, but because we wish to be healthier, and we don't believe mainstream commercial agriculture can be a part of that equation.  Crazy conspiracy theories or dreams of global disaster have nothing to do with it.

That having been said, we wish to now muse upon "The next great thing that's going to kill us all!"

The words "Carrington Event" will be percolating their way into the mainstream media over the course of the next two or three years, and accompanying those words will be the singsong cries of hysteria from the Tribulation crowd.

In 1859, English astronomer Richard Carrington observed the largest solar flare ever witnessed.  His astonishment was matched the following morning when aurora borealis, typically observed only in far northern reaches, were seen as far south as Cuba and Hawaii.  Most observers were merely astonished, or perhaps annoyed -- lights blaring like the noon-day sun waking you up well before dawn could be considered annoying regardless of how pretty or divine the poets may find them.

However, a footnote to the event has given modern observers pause -- the impact of Carrington's solar flare on the telegraph system was remarkable.  The recording paper in several stations caught fire; the lines were hypercharged by the energy pelting the Earth; even after the battery power to the telegraph machines was removed, they continued to operate.

What would happen in modern times if such an event were to occur?  By some estimates, the damage to electronic equipment could reach $2,000,000,000,000.  That's 2 trillion dollars, for those who lost track of the zeroes.  Roughly 20 times as much damage as was done by Hurricane Katrina.

There are others who argue that the damage would be far worse; the most recent NASA estimate quotes a fairly optimistic recovery timeline of several months to about a decade.  Others argue that there would be no recovery.

Why?  What kind of damage are we talking about here?

Actually, the apocalyptic thinkers have a point here.  One of the most vulnerable pieces of equipment in a Carrington Event would be the transformers you see up on power lines all throughout your local version of "the grid".  These boxes are fairly difficult to install, but on a planned basis, electrical engineers are able to keep up with demand.  In a Carrington Event, however, they would all have to be replaced.  All of them.  And there is just no quick way to do that.

Which means most people would be without power for several months at the very least.

Think about how many things we take for granted which rely on electricity.  Wow.

How likely is that, really?  Not very.  But... as recently as 1972, there was a solar flare event which knocked out communications worldwide for about 10 minutes.  The only major grid failure reported was in Quebec, Canada.  But that was in 1972.  Far fewer forms of communication existed then, and they were of less vulnerable kinds.  Land line phones, though they seem archaic now, were much less susceptible to the influence of solar weather.

Were the 1972 event to be repeated today?

In that 10 minutes, would you want to be on an airplane making an approach to a busy and crowded airport?  Would you want to be on an operating table having open heart surgery?  Would you want to be on a ship, or on the dock, during the docking operation of a multi-ton cargo vessel?

Neither would we.

And a Carrington Event would be much bigger.  On the plus side, solar activity is cyclical, and the Carrington Event seems to have been a once-in-a-millenium event.  However, there is tremendous uncertainty in the cycles; we are coming out of the "solar minimum", which has lasted now far longer than astrophysicists had predicted when it began earlier this decade.  The consensus seems to be that by May, 2013, we should be out of it again.

We haven't even discussed the impact of Space Weather on climate change, or how the global warming denialists step all over themselves trying to find new ways to contradict their own a priori presumptions; perhaps another time.  What we at Myrtle's place wish to do now is let you know that the world is not going to end any time soon -- to paraphrase our favorite Michael Crighton line, "The world is going to be perfectly fine.  We're the ones in trouble!"

So, what can we do as individuals about the coming solar apocalypse?

As it turns out, quite a lot.

The theories which suggest that solar interference with all-things-electrical will lead to the collapse of society depend on a couple of related propositions.  First, people are connected solely by electrical and electronic equipment, or things dependent upon such equipment, and second, people are incapable of working together in the absence of such equipment.  There are several layers of independence which, ironically, would function to unite our communities were they to be more widely adopted.

Food independence.  We have written before about the need to start shopping locally, in addition to growing as much of your own food as possible.  There are a variety of reasons for this; the most important relate to health, as local food is more likely to be organic food, and thus free of poisonous pesticides and herbicides.  However, at present, the average comestible travels over 1,000 miles before it gets to your plate.

That needs to change now.  If you can garden, do so.  If you can't, buy or barter with those who can.  Even in the Solar Armageddon, if you have a Community Supported Agriculture (CSA) agreement, you are far more likely to get help from a friendly farmer than are those who depend solely on the goodwill of national chain grocery stores.

Also, get some chickens.  There's nothing like fresh eggs from happy chickens, anyway, so even if the disaster never happens, you'll be glad you got the birds.

In addition, we suggest you look into a Mormon Pantry.  Yes, yes, we know, the Latter Day Saints don't exactly fit the description of non-apocalyptic thinkers, but remember, we said such thinkers both revulse and intrigue us.  We don't agree with them on much, but preparedness is one area where we are in accord.  A two year supply of dry goods in your pantry does not strike us as a bad idea, although you probably want to exercise some discretion.  Pumpkin pie mix and lima beans would be as unappealing at the End of Days as they are on a typical Saturday evening.

Water independence.  Given how many times Myrtle has pontficated about pollutants in our drinking water, it should come as no surprise to you that we recommend doing everything in your power not to be dependent upon others for clean potables.  Rainwater collection is step one; after you are sure that you will have sufficient water on hand, step two is some method of purification.  Provided you have the power, we recommend distilling the water; this not only gets rid of microbial infestations, it also removes chemical pollutants, which will be just as big a problem if the grid goes down as they are now.

Energy independence.  In the absence of electricity from the grid, where can you get electrical power?  For those who do not generate their own electricity, there is the obvious alternative--a generator.  However, what would happen if you were not on the grid when it went down?  There is reason to believe that not all home solar panel installations would be as adversely affected as others -- you would need to take proper precautions when installing your system, but it is highly possible that given enough lead time for a warning, you could protect your home solar installation from the total blowout the city power is likely to experience.

If enough homes were independently solar by the time the Carrington Event took place, there would be a hub in every city in America of completely unaffected neighborhoods.  We aren't sure how many it would take to make a tipping point, but just one out of every ten households would be more than enough to power distillers for clean water for everyone.

Getting enough people off the grid before catastrophe strikes would also enable a quicker recovery for the energy utilities; fewer users would mean fewer blown transformers, etc.  Which would mean a quicker overall recovery time.

Social interdependence.  Here is the biggest place in which we diverge from the survivalists.  While they would have you watch your neighbors suspicously and arm yourselves with Kalashnikovs and tear gas, we would have you take them poundcake, and invite them over for lemonade and fried catfish.

Get to know your neighbors; this is ultimately the best defense against any catastrophe.  The powers of paranoia revel in gated communities with huge St. Augustine lawns, but this is madness.  Our species is a social species; we only survived against saber toothed tigers because we banded together.  A bunch of puny, weak, bipedal apes threw dirt clods at our much bigger predators until they went away.  And now, even the most steroidally enhanced of us is still puny when compared to the forces of nature against which we find ourselves aligned.  If we are to have any chance at all, whether facing hurricanes, or oil spills, or solar flares, it is by caring about what goes on in each other's lives.  And not as a nosy means of self-promotion, but as a genuine expression of interest. 

So, next Saturday afternoon, when you had been planning on hand-washing all your camo long johns, why don't you instead trow a block party and learn the name of all those people you have so studiously ignored all these years?

The likelihood of a Carrington Event in our lifetimes is extremely remote; there will soon be a lot of sound and fury which we predict will signify nothing.  But that doesn't change the fact that in the face of potential disaster, humanity really only has two choices:  we can be delusional fanatics who run around like chickens with our heads cut off, or else we can roll up our sleeves and get to work.

Happy Apocalypse!  And....

Happy farming!