For the Record, It's Cold Because It's Winter...

We're not going to link any of the foolish "the world is actually cooling" stories because, well, they're foolish.  Basing your science on a wanton desire to keep burning fossil fuels like there's no tomorrow is a sure way to make sure there's no tomorrow.

To make things plain, before we express our opinion about global warming denialists, we start with the basics:

• We are not trained scientists; we are trained as literary critics.  This, however, is better training than that of most global warming denialists, who are frequently the same as evolution denialists, which is a whole other ball of uneducated wax to deal with.
• We do not have proof that man-made sources of warming are the cause of global warming.  We do, however, have evidence that warming is happening, and denying that evidence requires some serious mental contortion.
• It is snowing a lot on the eastern seaboard this winter.  That was something actually predicted by many of the same scientists who seek to educate the uneducated on global warming.

Now then, first things first.   Permafrost is disappearing.  Just ask the Inuit and they'll tell you.  Or, ask the Swedes, who are seeing it happen now.  Between declining permafrost and melting glaciers, the world's supply of "permanently" frozen water is decreasing rapidly.

There are plenty of disputes between and among statisticians about how to measure "global temperature" or even whether such a measurement, if theoretically possible, is even meaningful.  Ignore those disputes.  They are irrelevant.  The question is whether individual climates (and their associated ecospheres) are practicable in a rapidly changing global climate.  And the answer is almost invariably "no".  Permafrost is a great example, and it will have a hugely underestimated economic impact over the next couple of decades.  Just go ask a civil engineer what happens if the density of the soil you've built roads, railroads, pipelines, and buildings on top of changes by several orders of magnitude in less than a decade.  It ain't a pretty picture.

If you really want to know why, given the fact that the world is getting warmer, it's snowing on the East Coast, you ought to check with the folk who track such things.  You'll notice that the outlook for the East is cold, but the outlook for the West (including Alaska, all you permafrost fans) is warmer than usual. 

The reason?  The El Niño Southern Oscillation effect.  "Blame it on El Niño" is a convenient catch-phrase, but it isn't just a slogan.

El Niño is a change in the temperature of the water near the surface of a large part of the Pacific Ocean.  This has such a dramatic impact on our weather because the ocean has many, many thousands of times more heat-storing capacity than the environment does.  Changes in ocean temperature have a dramatic impact on winds, including "permanent" winds like the trade winds or the jet stream.  Check wikipedia if you are not familiar with these terms -- remember, we're English majors here.  But we've read the stories and evaluated the evidence -- Global Warming denialists are long on rhetoric, heavy on ad hominem argument, and short on science.

The only question, really, is how much of global climate change is man-caused, and what (if anything) can be done about it.  I'd suggest that the best place to find answers is from some of the same sources sensible enough to tell us that it's happening in the first place.

Whew!  Next post, we'll get back to your regularly scheduled farm updates.  For now, it's February, and it's cold.  We're going inside for some hot cocoa.

Happy farming!