Storm's a'comin'... Eventually...

"For the rain it raineth every day."

William Shakespeare, Twelfth Night, Act V, scene 1

Delightfully, as we write this, a Pacific low pressure system is winding its way across Mexico, and will most likely bring us some much needed rain here in the Brazos Valley over the next few days.  While we recently heard a little league dad complain that there have been numerous rainout days this Spring, we also know that our rainwater collection ponds are both almost empty, in spite of the fact that usually at this time of year they are both overflowing.

What gives?  Well, what gives is this:  it has been raining as often as normal here in College Station, Texas, this year, but it has not been raining as much.  A sprinkle here, a sprinkle there, enough to irritate those infernal non-gardeners, but not nearly enough to satisfy those of us with even partially green thumbs.

In spite of the brief series of showers we are about to receive this week, we are fully aware that the lack of rain will continue to be a trend for the duration of this year, more than likely.  We will undoubtedly post about drought later this Spring/early Summer, as there are things an urban farmer can do to help your plants survive the dry heat we will all be feeling, but at present we merely wish to report on long term trends… because they are interesting, and because they have a great impact on what long term plans need to be scrapped, and which plans make sense.

For starters, know that heat and dry weather make for a self-sustaining loop in the central part of the United States.  We have come to loathe the mid-continental high pressure ridge that is a familiar feature of the summertime weather chart – it is a high pressure system with a center which variably anchors anywhere from the Dallas/Ft. Worth metroplex to somewhere over the Dakotas, and pushes or pulls 100°-plus temperatures with it wherever it goes.

So unless we get a series of torrential downpours over the next few months (and that does not appear likely), then the prediction of above average temperatures for the next few months does not bode well for the Brazos Valley even reaching its normal summertime precipitation levels – and keep in mind that these are normally our driest months of the year anyway, so getting even an inch of rain for the entire month of July would have to  be considered a minor miracle this year.

We fully expect, therefore, for our rainwater collection ponds to be completely dry within a couple of months, except for the water coming from our newfangled, high-falutin’ washing machine, which alas! is so efficient that it hardly puts out much water at all – certainly not enough to keep pace with evaporation in June/July/August, even if we manage to get every article of clothing we own dirty on a regular basis.

We also expect the raised garden beds we built this Spring to be burnt to a crisp if we were to attempt to plant anything remotely tender in them during this time period.  Hardy hot weather crops like amaranth will be okay, but anything else?  Forget it.

So, as you can see, we have to adjust our plans for the summer according to what the environment dictates – no experimenting with new crops, and no reliance on pond water.

What we can do is make improvements which might not otherwise be possible.  For example, one of our ponds is only about four feet deep at present.  As soon as it dries out, we can deepen it (hopefully as low as 10 feet), and finish off the fence line behind it, completing the physical barrier at the bottom end of our property.  Ironically, that would make this pond the only part of our yard which is in the 100 year flood plain, but that is a subject for another time…

Likewise, the pond at the top end of our property, where we collect both rain and washing machine water, is 8-10 feet deep at its lowest point… but only about 2-3 feet deep for roughly half its area.  We need to deepen it as well.

And when we are done digging big, dry holes in the ground?  We can add gutters to the roof of our house.  Our roof is roughly 1,000 square feet in area, and as a result, were we to collect water coming off the roof in gutters, and funnel it through the yard in appropriate new pipes or gulleys, we could fill both ponds with as little as 5” of rain.  Since we average 5” over the course of a summer, that would mean that in most years, as dry as we are, we could manage to water the garden from the ponds even in the hottest, driest time of the year.

And, as it turns out, these ambitious plans will probably take a good six months to complete…. which means we have plenty of time before the good news hits.  As it turns out, most statistical models are now suggesting that we are moving to a period of strong El Niño conditions starting some time this Fall.  Normally, the onset of ENSO-positive effects (wetter weather for the Southern U.S., drought for Australia and Polynesia) lags a good six months or so from the onset of the upwelling of warm water in the Eastern Pacific… and sure enough the NOAA long term charts show wetter weather for the Gulf Coast of the U.S. for the three month period of February/March/April of 2015.

So, to recap, the bad news is:  drought and hot weather for the rest of 2014 (though, with the coming of summer in a month or so, if this surprised you, there’s no hope for you).  Good news?  Wet weather is coming, and we have almost a year to get ready for it.  Here’s hoping this time a year from now we have to hold an umbrella over ourselves as we ponder what unusual goody to plant next.

Happy farming!