"For the rain it raineth every day."
William Shakespeare, Twelfth Night, Act V, scene 1
Delightfully,
as we write this, a Pacific low pressure system is winding its way across
Mexico, and will most likely bring us some much needed rain here in the Brazos
Valley over the next few days. While we
recently heard a little league dad complain that there have been numerous
rainout days this Spring, we also know that our rainwater collection ponds are
both almost empty, in spite of the fact that usually at this time of year they
are both overflowing.
What
gives? Well, what gives is this: it has been raining as often as normal here in College Station, Texas, this year, but
it has not been raining as much. A sprinkle here, a sprinkle there, enough to
irritate those infernal non-gardeners, but not nearly enough to satisfy those
of us with even partially green thumbs.
In
spite of the brief series of showers we are about to receive this week, we are
fully aware that the lack of rain will continue to be a trend for the duration
of this year, more than likely. We will
undoubtedly post about drought later this Spring/early Summer, as there are
things an urban farmer can do to help your plants survive the dry heat we will
all be feeling, but at present we merely wish to report on long term trends…
because they are interesting, and because they have a great impact on what long
term plans need to be scrapped, and which plans make sense.
For
starters, know that heat and dry weather make for a self-sustaining loop in the
central part of the United States. We
have come to loathe the mid-continental high pressure ridge that is a familiar
feature of the summertime weather chart – it is a high pressure system with a
center which variably anchors anywhere from the Dallas/Ft. Worth metroplex to
somewhere over the Dakotas, and pushes or pulls 100°-plus temperatures with it
wherever it goes.
So
unless we get a series of torrential downpours over the next few months (and
that does not appear likely), then the prediction of above average temperatures
for the next few months does not bode well for the Brazos Valley even reaching
its normal summertime precipitation levels – and keep in mind that these are
normally our driest months of the year anyway, so getting even an inch of rain
for the entire month of July would have to
be considered a minor miracle this year.
We
fully expect, therefore, for our rainwater collection ponds to be completely
dry within a couple of months, except for the water coming from our newfangled,
high-falutin’ washing machine, which alas! is so efficient that it hardly puts
out much water at all – certainly not enough to keep pace with evaporation in
June/July/August, even if we manage to get every article of clothing we own
dirty on a regular basis.
We
also expect the raised garden beds we built this Spring to be burnt to a crisp
if we were to attempt to plant anything remotely tender in them during this
time period. Hardy hot weather crops
like amaranth will be okay, but anything else?
Forget it.
So,
as you can see, we have to adjust our plans for the summer according to what
the environment dictates – no experimenting with new crops, and no reliance on
pond water.
What
we can do is make improvements which
might not otherwise be possible. For
example, one of our ponds is only about four feet deep at present. As soon as it dries out, we can deepen it
(hopefully as low as 10 feet), and finish off the fence line behind it,
completing the physical barrier at the bottom end of our property. Ironically, that would make this pond the
only part of our yard which is in the 100 year flood plain, but that is a
subject for another time…
Likewise,
the pond at the top end of our property, where we collect both rain and washing
machine water, is 8-10 feet deep at its lowest point… but only about 2-3 feet
deep for roughly half its area. We need
to deepen it as well.
And
when we are done digging big, dry holes in the ground? We can add gutters to the roof of our house. Our roof is roughly 1,000 square feet in
area, and as a result, were we to collect water coming off the roof in gutters,
and funnel it through the yard in appropriate new pipes or gulleys, we could
fill both ponds with as little as 5” of rain.
Since we average 5” over the course of a summer, that would mean that in
most years, as dry as we are, we could manage to water the garden from the ponds
even in the hottest, driest time of the year.
And,
as it turns out, these ambitious plans will probably take a good six months to
complete…. which means we have plenty of time before the good news hits. As it
turns out, most statistical models are now suggesting that we are moving to a
period of strong El Niño conditions
starting some time this Fall. Normally,
the onset of ENSO-positive effects (wetter weather for the Southern U.S.,
drought for Australia and Polynesia) lags a good six months or so from the
onset of the upwelling of warm water in the Eastern Pacific… and sure enough
the NOAA long term charts show wetter weather for the Gulf Coast of the U.S.
for the three month period of February/March/April of 2015.
So,
to recap, the bad news is: drought and
hot weather for the rest of 2014 (though, with the coming of summer in a month
or so, if this surprised you, there’s no hope for you). Good news?
Wet weather is coming, and we have almost a year to get ready for
it. Here’s hoping this time a year from
now we have to hold an umbrella over ourselves as we ponder what unusual goody
to plant next.
Happy
farming!
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